UCL Semifinals: AC Milan vs Inter Preview, Odds
Fourth Derby della Madonnina of the Season
Bitter Rivals AC Milan and Inter Meet in UCL
It’s an all-Italian affair in the second UEFA Champions League Semifinal. In fact, a pair of Milan derbies will be played over the next couple of weeks as AC Milan takes on Inter Milan. These clubs have a long and storied rivalry and rarely have they faced off in such important matches. They both faced difficult warm-up matches in Serie A last weekend but passed with flying colors. The Rossoneri took down Lazio 2-0 while the Nerazzurri defeated Lazio’s rivals Roma by the same scoreline. We’ll take a look at the odds for Wednesday’s first leg UCL Semifinal in our AC Milan vs Inter preview.
Champions League Semifinal: AC Milan vs Inter Milan Game Info:
AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Day/Time: Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
Streaming: CBS, Univision, TUDN, Paramount+
Head-to-Head:
In three previous meetings of the Derby della Madonnina this season, Inter Milan is 2-1 vs AC Milan. Most recently, Inter got a 1-0 win over the Rossoneri in Serie A as Lautaro Martinez scored the winner. Inter also picked up a 3-0 win in the Supercoppa Italiana final, which was played in Saudi Arabia. The Nerazzurri have also lost just one of the last five meetings, in all competitions. Martinez has scored four goals in the last four meetings of this fixture. In the last 10 derbies, Inter leads the series 5-3, with two draws. The last time these two sides met in the Champions League was in the 2005 Quarterfinal, where AC Milan won 5-0 on aggregate. Milan has seven titles in the all-time Champions League standings, while Inter has three.
Leao Key for AC Milan
Key Injuries: F Rafael Leao (Questionable), F Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Out)
AC Milan won their first Serie A title since 2011 last season and are going for their first UCL title since 2007 here. Milan vs Inter previews note that Milan is the biggest remaining underdog, though. They come in at just +850 odds to win the Champions League but do have the personnel to pull it off. Rafael Leao is the Rossoneri’s most talented player and he’s already scored twice vs Inter Milan this season. However, he left Saturday’s match with a groin injury but it’s not expected to be anything serious.
Still, with just a few days of rest in between, he’s questionable to start Wednesday’s match. He should at least be on the bench, especially for such an important match. If he can’t suit up, Alexis Saelemaekers and Charles de Ketelaere are other options to replace him. While Leao leads the team with four Champions League assists, Olivier Giroud has found the net five times in the UCL. Giroud, France’s all-time leading scorer, is expected to lead the line come Wednesday. Milan are already battle-tested and have knocked out Tottenham and Napoli in the last couple of rounds.
Milan were underdogs vs. 2022-23 Serie A champions Napoli but managed to eke out a 2-1 win, on aggregate. In fact, Milan is unbeaten in their last nine matches, in all competitions. During that time, they’ve conceded just four goals as Mike Maignan has been a standout in goal. Left-back Theo Hernandez is another player to watch as he’s currently one of the best fullbacks in the world. AC Milan is not exactly flashy but they’re most certainly effective.
Inter on Five-Game Winning Streak
Key Injuries: D Milan Skriniar (Out), M Robin Gosens (Doubtful)
It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan this season. However, they’ve played their way back into Serie A’s top four and have won five straight, in all competitions. Over the weekend, Federico Dimarco and Romelu Lukaku found the back of the net to down Roma, 2-0. With the win, Inter stayed two points ahead of AC Milan in the table and still have treble hopes alive. They handily beat AC Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana final and will also take on Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia final later this month. The UCL Semifinals odds list Inter as -145 favorites to advance to their third final of the season as well.
Inter have averaged three goals per game in their last six matches and recently had a six-goal outburst vs Hellas Verona. Lautaro Martinez has been the Nerazzurri’s most productive player this season, with 32 goal contributions across all matches. Romelu Lukaku’s return to Milan started off slowly but he’s also scored some big goals in recent weeks. Defender Milan Skriniar is out but Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni have picked up the slack. Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella have also been mainstays in midfield for the Nerazzurri.
Recall that Inter also managed to qualify for the UCL knockout stage by finishing ahead of Barcelona in their group. Inter are experts at last-ditch defending and strongly dislike conceding goals. They’ve allowed just one in their last five games and goalkeeper Andre Onana leads the UCL in shutouts, with six. On Wednesday, Inter will go for their third straight shutout vs AC Milan.
Match Analysis and Odds:
AC Milan vs Inter previews note that this is technically a home game for the Rossoneri. Although, both teams share the Stadio San Siro and Inter will “host” next Wednesday. AC Milan may be the home side but they are moneyline underdogs here. Milan shows +210 odds to win the match, while Inter is a +145 favorite. A draw is also implied to be relatively likely, at +215. The last four meetings between these two sides have finished with a winner, though. It appears the oddsmakers are taking into account the possibility that Rafael Leao doesn’t play in this Derby della Madonnina.
In what’s expected to be a close match regardless, AC Milan pk displays +120 odds. In this pick’em, Inter also shows -140 odds to cover and get a sixth straight win. On their five-game winning streak, Simone Inzaghi’s side have outscored their opponents 15-1. That stretch includes wins over Roma, Lazio, and Juventus. AC Milan won’t make things easy for their rivals, though, and haven’t conceded more than one goal in a match for nearly two months. With both defenses playing excellently, the over/under goals total is set at two.
Currently, over two goals come in at -140 odds for Wednesday’s first-leg UCL Semifinals matchup. While AC Milan is +850 underdogs to win the UCL, Inter isn’t too far ahead. The latest outright odds price the Nerazzurri at +650 to win their first UCL trophy since 2010. Although Inter is the favorite to advance and is ahead of AC Milan in Serie A as well, they’ve already lost three matches at the San Siro in 2023. Anything is possible in this Semifinals fixture between two bitter rivals.
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