EPL Matchday 21 Odds: Liverpool vs Chelsea on Saturday
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Arsenal stunningly took an eight-point lead over Manchester City with their 2-0 North London Derby win over Tottenham. The Gunners face another formidable foe this weekend, Manchester United, who have also entered the title discussion. An intriguing clash between struggling Liverpool and Chelsea is on the menu as well. Tottenham also contest another London Derby on Monday vs. a surprising Fulham side. We’ll take a look at these matches and more as we review the EPL Matchday 21 odds.
Games of the Week
Liverpool vs Chelsea
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Chelsea finally ended a four-game winless run in all competitions by defeating Crystal Palace last Sunday. Now, they head up north to take on Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.
The Reds managed to defeat Wolves in the FA Cup midweek but are reeling from a 3-0 EPL loss to Brighton. Unbelievably, Liverpool and Chelsea enter the weekend in ninth and tenth place, respectively.
Liverpool have been uncharacteristically sloppy on the defensive end and have given up three goals in each of their last two Premier League matches.
With Virgil van Dijk out, the EPL Matchday 21 odds still price Liverpool as ½-goal favorites. The Reds come in at both -115 ATS and moneyline odds but are missing forwards Roberto Firmino, Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota as well. Darwin Nunez is probable but is nursing an undisclosed injury.
Chelsea, who have just a 3-2-5 record on the road this season, show -105 odds to cover and just +305 odds to win. The last four meetings between these teams, in all competitions, have finished in 90-minute draws and a fifth straight sits at +275 odds.
Chelsea have their fair share of forwards out as well. New loan signing Joao Felix picked up a straight red card vs. Fulham and is suspended.
Raheem Sterling, Christian Pulisic, N’Golo Kante, Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell and Armando Broja are also out injured. Exciting prospect Mykhailo Mudryk, who Chelsea signed for over $100 million from Shakhtar Donetsk could be in line to make his debut here.
The winger scored three goals in the UCL group stage for Shakhtar. Winter Liverpool signing Cody Gakpo is still looking for his first goal for the club. Despite five of the last six meetings finishing with two or fewer goals, over 2½ goals displays -135 odds for this one.
Arsenal vs Manchester United
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Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal passed a very tough North London Derby test vs. Tottenham last Sunday. A Hugo Lloris own goal off a Bukayo Saka shot and a Martin Odegaard strike gave the Gunners a 2-0 win.
With the win and their newfound eight-point lead, Arsenal sit at -125 Premier League odds for title. It’s a stunning development for a team many didn’t believe would make the top four this season.
They’ll face another tough test in Manchester United on Sunday. The Red Devils failed to extend their Premier League win streak to six by drawing with Crystal Palace 1-1 on Wednesday.
Arsenal, missing star striker Gabriel Jesus, opened as ½-goal favorites and show both -105 ATS and moneyline odds to win. Recall that Manchester United are the only team to defeat Arsenal this season.
The Red Devils won 3-1 at Old Trafford in a match that Arsenal midfield lynchpin Thomas Partey missed. Partey is fit and available but Manchester United will be missing key midfielder Casemiro due to a suspension.
‘Erik ten Hag’s United come in at -115 odds to cover the spread and +280 odds to win.’
Arsenal defeated Manchester United at the Emirates last season and are unbeaten at home vs. United in the EPL since 2017. A draw also shows +270 odds.
Man U were red hot prior to their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. A Michael Olise free kick in stoppage time canceled out Bruno Fernandes’ first half goal.
Even without Casemiro, the Red Devils have plenty of midfield creativity with Fernandes and Christian Eriksen. Marcus Rashford didn’t have his best game vs. Palace but has been in stellar form. Arsenal’s front four has been on fire lately and Martin Odegaard is genuinely making a case to be the Premier League Player of the Season.
Odegaard’s goal vs. Tottenham was his eighth of the season and he’s also added five assists. Over 2½ goals is listed at -130 odds for this one and the last three meetings have finished with four or more goals.
Fulham vs Tottenham
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Fulham’s narrow 1-0 loss to Newcastle ended a four-match winning streak in the EPL. Marco Silva’s Cottagers have been one of the surprises of the season and are a well-drilled side.
They’ll host fellow Londoners Tottenham on Monday and could overtake Spurs in the table with a win. Spurs looked toothless in their 2-0 home loss to Arsenal last Sunday and face a tough test vs. Manchester City on Thursday. At the very least, the rest advantage is certainly in Fulham’s favor.
Still, the EPL betting odds list Fulham as ½-goal underdogs. They do show a -130 price to cover but are +225 underdogs to win the match. Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrović has 11 goals this season and will be a handful for the Spurs defense.
Andreas Pereira and João Palhinha are also standouts in the Cottagers’ midfield. Meanwhile, Tottenham come in at both +110 moneyline and ATS odds. A draw also displays +280 odds but Fulham have only picked up points twice in the nine meetings of the last decade. Tottenham hold an impressive 7-1-1 record in this fixture over that timeframe.
Tottenham’s Harry Kane has 15 goals this season but Arsenal kept him quiet last Sunday. Both Ivan Perisic and Dejan Kulusevski are tied for fourth place in the EPL with four assists each. For all of the attacking threat that Antonio Conte’s Spurs pose, they’ve been dreadful on defense lately.
Heading into Thursday’s match vs. Manchester City they’ve conceded twice in eight of their last nine EPL matches. Goalkeeper Hugo Lloris made a costly error vs. Arsenal and it’ll be interesting to see if his confidence is affected.
Fulham have scored in six of their last seven Premier League matches. So, it’s no surprise over 2½ goals sits at -130 odds for Monday’s match.
Other Matches to Watch:
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
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Crystal Palace managed to preserve a late draw at home vs. Manchester United on Wednesday. Now, they’ll take on a Newcastle side that hasn’t lost in the EPL since August.
Eddie Howe’s Magpies have been on a remarkable run and enter the weekend in fourth place. They won their last match 1-0 vs. Fulham as Alexander Isak scored an 89th minute winner. Isak is recently back from injury and the Swedish striker adds a big punch to Newcastle’s offense.
Newcastle head into Saturday’s match as ½ -goal favorites at -115 ATS and moneyline odds. With a win, Newcastle could climb as high as second in the table but they’re currently in fourth.
On the other hand, Patrick Vieira’s Palace have only won one of their last six games. They’ve also only kept one clean sheet at home this season. The Eagles sit at -105 odds to cover and +345 odds to win the match.
The last two meetings, in all competitions, have finished in draws and another displays +250 odds. Newcastle have kept five consecutive clean sheets and haven’t given up more than one goal in a match since August.
Given Newcastle’s defensive record and the fact that the last four meetings, in all competitions, have finished with fewer than three goals, it’s not at all shocking that under 2½ goals shows a -135 price.
Manchester City vs Wolves
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Following their match vs. Tottenham on Thursday, Manchester City host Wolves on Sunday. Entering the match vs. Tottenham, City have won just two of their last five Premier League games.
Man City blew a lead to lose the Manchester Derby 2-1 last Saturday. In any case, City have won their last five EPL matches vs. Wolves. Both 2022 meetings were decided by three or more goals as well. Wolves have displayed quite the uptick in form under former Sevilla manager Julen Lopetegui.
They’re 2-1-1 in the Premier League since he took over, with only a 1-0 loss to Manchester United. Daniel Podence has also scored in three of Wolves’ last four matches.
Regardless, the EPL Matchday 21 Odds list Manchester City as two-goal favorites. The Cityzens come in at -115 odds to cover the spread and -525 odds to win the match.
Wolves show -105 odds to cover the spread and long +1300 odds to get their first win over City since 2019. None of the last eight meetings between these teams have finished in draws, but punters can take a deadlock at +650 odds. The consensus seems to be that a bunch of goals will be scored in this match.
Over three goals sits at -135 odds for this one. After all, City do have the league’s leading scorer, Erling Haaland.
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