UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Odds: Second Legs
Manchester United Hold Huge Advantage
Half of Fixtures Hang in the Balance
The first legs of the Europa League Round of 16 fixtures produced some incredibly entertaining matches. Arsenal vs. Sporting and Union Berlin vs. Union Saint-Gilloise finished in four and six goal draws, respectively. Manchester United also managed to pick up a crucial 4-1 win over Real Betis to get one foot in the quarterfinals.
While United are heavy favorites to advance, four of the eight round of 16 matchups enter Thursday’s second legs level or with just a one-goal margin. Let’s take a look at the latest odds and hone in on the matches that still very much hang in the balance.
Matches of the Week:
SC Freiburg vs Juventus
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SC Freiburg’s first-ever knockout stage match in a UEFA competition finished in a 1-0 loss to Juventus last Thursday. Angel di Maria came up clutch for Juventus once again and scored the game’s only goal. Freiburg need at least a one-goal win at home on Thursday to force extra time and have a chance to advance to the quarterfinals. Following Sunday’s 2-1 win over Hoffenheim, Freiburg are still underdogs vs. Juve. The German side show +115 odds to cover as a pick’em and +200 Europa League odds to win the match.
Meanwhile, Juventus have an excellent record of advancing following a first leg victory in UEFA knockout ties. They’ve advanced nine consecutive times after winning the first leg. Massimiliano Allegri also decided to rest Di Maria in Sunday’s match vs. Sampdoria. Juve won 4-2 and Di Maria, who has scored four times in his last two Europa League matches, should be available on Thursday.
However, Alex Sandro and Arkadiusz Milik will miss this match, while Paul Pogba and Federico Chiesa are day-to-day. Regardless, visitors Juventus sit at -145 odds as a pick’em. Meanwhile, Juve are +140 moneyline favorites and the odds for a draw are currently set at +210.
Adrien Rabiot has played a big role in the Juve midfield lately and has provided another scoring punch. The French international has scored three goals in his last four matches, in all competitions. With 10 clean sheets, Freiburg goalkeeper Mark Flekken leads the Bundesliga but SCF have conceded in three of their last four matches. They’ll need to put in a solid defensive shift to have a chance of advancing here. Oddsmakers are expecting goals, though, with over two listed at -140 odds.
Feyenoord vs Shakhtar Donetsk
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Feyenoord and Shakhtar Donetsk are both big underdogs to win the Europa League. Their Europa League Round of 16 matchup is still one with a lot of intrigue. Following a 1-1 draw at Shakhtar’s temporary home in Warsaw, either team could conceivably advance.
According to the latest odds, Feyenoord have a much better chance to do so, though. The current Dutch Eredivisie leaders enter the match as one-goal favorites. In Rotterdam, the hosts come in at -125 odds to cover and -200 odds to win Thursday’s match.
Shakhtar Donetsk are on an 11-match scoring streak in all competitions and are no strangers to extra time. The Ukrainian Premier League leaders defeated Rennes in penalties in the Europa League playoff. They also managed a 4-1 win on the road at RB Leipzig in the group stage of this season’s Champions League. The moneyline odds for Shakhtar are currently +475 but a draw, at +330, forces extra time once again. Heorhii Sudakov is one to watch for Shakhtar, as the midfielder has managed 11 goal contributions this season. Shakhtar Donetsk +1 also displays -105 odds.
Feyenoord, on the other hand, are unbeaten since November. They got a 2-1 comeback win to defeat FC Volendam on Sunday and have won five straight matches in the Eredivisie. They have a balanced scoring attack, as all of Orkun Kokcu, Danilo, Santiago Gimenez and Sebastian Szymanski have made significant contributions this season. Recall that soccer betting only takes into account the first 90 minutes of a match and extra time goals will not count toward the total. Regardless, over 2½ goals sit at -125 odds for what should be an excellent match.
Union Berlin vs Union Saint-Gilloise
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The most exciting match of the first legs of the Europa League round of 16 was undoubtedly Union Berlin vs. Union Saint-Gilloise. On a snowy night in Berlin, both teams played their first-ever Europa League knockout stage match. Victor Boniface opened up the scoring for the visitors on a shot that was redirected by a deflection.
Josip Juranovic then equalized on an excellently placed free kick. USG took the lead again in the second half through Yorbe Vertessen but Union Berlin’s Robin Knoche scored a rebound on a penalty in the 69th minute. Boniface added a second in the 72nd minute but Union Berlin equalized for a third time from a Sven Michel volley.
Bettors aren’t necessarily expecting a six-goal game this time, but drama could certainly be on the cards. Visitors Union Berlin enter the match as ½-goal favorites at +125 ATS and moneyline odds. The odds price USG +½ at -155 odds and they last lost at home in November.
Union Berlin did knockout Ajax in the Europa League playoff, though, and have managed some excellent results in the Bundesliga this season. However, they have drawn their last three matches in all competitions. A fourth straight draw displays +235 odds and would mean an extra time fixture.
Andras Schafer could miss out with an ankle injury for Union Berlin but there are no injuries to report otherwise. The odds also price home side USG at +220 and the last team to defeat them at home was Union Berlin back in November. These teams split their Europa League group stage meetings, as both teams managed 1-0 road wins.
USG’s Boniface is a joint-leading scorer in the Europa League, with five goals. Speaking of goals, under 2½ is favored for the match, at -120 odds. In Thursday’s most competitive fixture, Union Berlin show -145 odds to advance, while Belgian Pro League contenders USG come in at +115 odds to make the quarters.
Arsenal vs Sporting
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The first leg between Sporting and Arsenal was another highly entertaining match. In a game where both teams took the game to one another, proceedings finished all square at two in Lisbon. Sporting will undoubtedly be hurt by the suspensions of Sebastian Coates and Hidemasa Morita for the second leg and the odds show it.
Premier League leaders Arsenal enter Thursday’s match as 1½-goal favorites and sit at even ATS and -275 moneyline odds. Sporting’s record away to English teams in UEFA competitions has been dreadful recently, as they’ve failed to win on their last nine tries.
The Portuguese side come in at -130 odds to cover the spread and just +700 odds to win. A draw would force extra time and bettors can find another tie at +410 odds. The Emirates Stadium has been akin to a fortress this season for Arsenal, though. They’ve lost just twice there all season and the atmosphere in North London hasn’t been this electric for years.
The Gunners destroyed Fulham 3-0 on Sunday as Leandro Trossard bagged a hat trick of assists. Gabriel Jesus also made his long awaited return following a long-term injury. Just Eddie Nketiah and Mo Elneny are out for Arsenal now.
Sporting Goalkeeper Antonio Adan has a muscle injury and could miss this match. His replacement, Franco Israel, managed to keep a clean sheet on Sunday in the win vs. Boavista. Regardless of their status as underdogs, Sporting aren’t at all an easy team to beat. They’re unbeaten in their last seven matches, in all competitions. In a match where a draw forces extra time and both teams can theoretically play relatively conservatively, under three goals come in at -140 odds.
Other Matches This Week
Real Betis need a miracle to overturn a three-goal deficit vs. Manchester United on Thursday. Four different Man U players got on the scoresheet in the first leg and the Red Devils are also favored in the return leg. Erik ten Hag’s Red Devils come in at -105 ATS and moneyline odds but just need to avoid a heavy defeat. In a match where Betis need to attack early and often, totals betting could be popular. Over 2½ goals display -130 odds.
With a 2-1 win over Almeria, Sevilla escaped La Liga’s relegation zone last weekend. Erik Lamela got on the scoresheet on Sunday and in the 2-0 win over Fenerbahce last Thursday. Heading to Istanbul could prove tricky for a team that has failed to win any of their four away matches in UEFA competitions this season.
Even with a poor road record, Sevilla +½ currently sits at -150 odds. Fenerbahce need at least a two-goal win here to stay alive and are +120 favorites to win the match. Erik Lamela has scored in consecutive matches for Sevilla and will look to get on the scoresheet again.
Ferencvaros unexpectedly finished in first place in the Group H Europa League standings. They earned a bye to the round of 16 but lost 2-0 to Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg. Even on the road, Leverkusen enter the match as -105 ATS and moneyline favorites.
AS Roma’s task at Real Sociedad on Thursday is clear, they just need to avoid a two-goal defeat or more. Jose Mourinho’s record in the Europa League knockout stage is incredible, with 11 wins, 3 draws and just two losses. Although his Roma are road underdogs, the Giallorossi come in at -140 odds to cover the ½-goal spread and grind out a win or draw on Thursday.
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