Morocco vs Spain Odds & Recap

The upsets just keep coming! ​​Morocco enjoyed the best day in their footballing history after deservedly beating Spain on penalties after Luis Enrique’s side failed to score any of their three penalty kicks.

Though it ended in a 0-0 draw, Morocco’s defense stultified Spain and created several opportunities in extra time. However, Achraf Hakimi sent Morocco through with an incredibly composed finish, sending his nation further than ever.

The game was a slow burner, with each side struggling to create clear-cut chances, despite moving the ball with relative ease. However, Morocco appeared bolder in possession, impressively playing around an aggressive Spanish counter-press to progress the ball from the defense.

Morocco also cleverly kept Spain fulcrum Sergio Busquets out of the game, pressuring the pass-master throughout, ensuring he completed fewer than 25 passes by half-time, significantly under his usual numbers. Sofiane Boufal looked to have beaten Marcos Llorente, playing his first minutes of the tournament at right-back. However, Nayef Aguerd headed over the best chance for Walid Regragui’s side.

With 10 minutes remaining, the Moroccan defense gave Alvaro Morata a sight of goal after good work from the impressive substitute Nico Williams. Still, his shot trickled across the face of the goal, barely missing the far corner.

With seconds left in normal time, Pedri’s inswinging freekick avoided any touch, but Morocco goalkeeper Bounou was impressively alert to push the goalbound cross away.

Walid Cheddira may have had a chance for Morocco early in extra time. One-on-one with Unai Simon, he scuffed his shot. The flag went up, but replays showed that he might have been given onside had he scored.

Spain was the more dominant team in extra-time, with Morocco happier to sit back, but they still struggled to create clear opportunities, frustrated by calm yet committed defending. Instead, Cheddira crafted yet another chance with tricky feet, only to fire straight at Simon from eight yards out.

📊 Team Stats 📊

Morocco	–	Spain
23%	Possession	77%
6	Total Shots	13
2	Shots on Target	1
4	Shots Wide	8
0	Shots Blocked	4
2	Saves	2
0	Corners	8
1	Yellow Cards	1
0	Red Cards	0
15	Fouls	14
5	Offsides	4
71%	Pass Accuracy	91%
9	Dribbles	7
11	Crosses	26
26	Tackles	11

Did We Get It Right?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on December 03, 2022.

Morocco Go for First Ever Knockout Stage Win

Spain’s upset loss to Japan came under controversial circumstances. The ball appeared to be out of bounds before Japan’s go-ahead goal and Spain couldn’t get an equalizer. La Furia Roja finished second in the group and may actually feel thankful they face Morocco instead of Croatia in the round of 16. Still, Morocco are not at all to be taken lightly after an excellent group stage performance. The Atlas Lions managed to go unbeaten in a group with Croatia, Belgium and Canada. In an excellent round of 16 matchup on Tuesday, we’ll review the Morocco vs Spain odds.

Team Standings and Odds:

Morocco and Spain last met at the 2018 World Cup in the group stage finale. Morocco were already eliminated from knockout stage contention at the time but managed a 2-2 draw. Spain very nearly lost the match but Iago Aspas got a 90th minute equalizer to preserve a point. This is the first time punters can bet on knockout stage Morocco vs Spain odds, though. Spain are unbeaten in three previous matches vs. Morocco all-time.

Morocco have been the biggest surprise team of the group stage. They were paired with Canada, Belgium and Croatia in Group F and entered with just +230 odds to advance to the knockout stage. They took it one step further and won Group F, which they showed just +1000 FIFA World Cup 2022 odds to do. The Atlas Lions kicked off the tournament with a 0-0 surprise draw vs. Croatia.

Then, Morocco pulled off one of the shock results of the tournament, with a 2-0 win over Belgium. Given the draw between Belgium and Croatia, Morocco would have qualified anyway but they managed to defeat Canada 2-1 in the group stage closer. That meant they finished atop their group for the first time since 1986. It’s also their first knockout stage appearance at the World Cup since then.

Walid Regragui, who only took over as head coach in August, has revamped Morocco’s defense.Morocco have conceded just one goal in six matches since he’s taken over and it was an own goal vs. Canada. His decision to recall star winger Hakim Ziyech back into the national team fold has also paid dividends. Ziyech scored vs. Canada and provided an assist vs. Belgium.

There are also other very talented players on the roster, like striker Youssef En-Nesyri, right back Achraf Hakimi and left back Noussair Mazraoui. This is a team that has what it takes to make a run and they went unbeaten vs. the 2018 finalists and third place finishers in the group stage.

For a short time, it looked like Spain would stunningly exit the World Cup. They fell behind 2-1 to Japan in their last group stage match and Costa Rica were leading Germany by the same score. If those scores held, Japan and Costa Rica would have advanced out of Group E. Germany did their part to keep Spain in the competition, with a 4-2 comeback win, but Spain lost and it knocked the Germans out. Spain coach Luis Enrique admitted he had no idea Spain were in danger of getting knocked out.

Things have gone a bit downhill since La Furia Roja’s dominant 7-0 win over Costa Rica in their first match. They haven’t played poorly but haven’t been as incisive in the final third and given up two leads in as many matches. The midfield of youngsters Pedri and Gavi and the veteran Sergio Busquets has been solid, though. Spain’s second match vs. Germany was one of the most anticipated FIFA World Cup matchups. They started out reasonably well and Alvaro Morata gave Spain the lead. However, they conceded a late goal and could only muster a draw.

Enrique made five changes to the starting eleven for the Japan game. It certainly seemed like he thought Spain would be going through either way and that arrogance almost sank them. Still, they kept 82 percent possession and had more chances. Expect a much more motivated Spain team on Tuesday now that the stakes are higher and clearly now they’re aware of them. Morata has played well in limited minutes and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start up top. Aymeric Laporte should also slot into the backline after getting rested vs. Japan.

Match Analysis and Odds:

Despite Morocco’s excellent run, the Morocco vs Spain odds price them as +600 underdogs. They are, however, favored to cover the one-goal spread at -115 odds. Spain, on the other hand, enter the match at -105 odds to cover and -180 odds to win. Oddsmakers certainly aren’t worried about Spain’s group stage performance, as they still show +600 odds to win the World Cup. Those are shorter odds than any team not named Brazil, Argentina or France.

they drew 1-1 and ended up losing in penalties. A draw in this match sits at +270 odds

There are certainly a few precedents for Spain dominating a match but failing to capitalize. Take the Japan game a few days ago and their round of 16 match vs. Russia in 2018, for example. La Furia Roja completed over 1100 passes and kept 78 percent of possession vs. Russia. However, they drew 1-1 and ended up losing in penalties. A draw in this match sits at +270 odds.

Spain looked invincible after their 7-0 win over Costa Rica but they’ve since proven to be anything but. Morocco are in a perfect position to take advantage. The Atlas Lions have only given up one goal since Walid Regragui took over and have kept clean sheets vs. Belgium and Croatia. It doesn’t figure to be easy for Spain to break down an impressive Morocco defense and the over/under goals total implies that. Under 2½ goals shows -140 odds for Tuesday’s must-watch match. If Morocco can pull off the upset, they’ll qualify for their first-ever World Cup quarterfinals.

Morocco vs Spain FAQ

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