Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Preview & Recaps
Must-Win for Both Teams
⚽Saudi Arabia vs Mexico: Game Recap⚽
Results: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Mexico
A drab first half burst into life in the second forty-five minutes when Mexico outmuscled Saudi Arabia to a 2-1 victory. Their dominant display proved to be futile, however, as Mexico fell into despair after Saudi Arabia scored to send them home.
Shortly after the second half began, Mexico had their deserved lead. A corner was flicked on to Henry Martin, and the striker tapped in from close range to give Mexico the lead. After Martin’s goal, it was non-stop Mexico in the second half. And they found a second shortly after a wonder strike from Luis Chavez.
Mexico won a free kick nearly 30 yards out, and Chavez’s whipped left footer curled away from the Saudi Arabia goalkeeper and into the top corner. It was his first international goal, a moment of beauty.
Mexico was in comfortable control for the remainder of the game, but it was a nail-biting finish at the Lusail Stadium. A tense final half hour saw fans, players, and anyone watching the games flicking between the two Group C matches. Second place could have been decided by which side, between Mexico and Poland, had fewer yellow cards.
Saudi’s No 1 Mohammed Al Owais was unconvincing throughout the affair, and Mexico continued to probe with late efforts from Hirving Lozano and Chavez in particular. Yet, Saudi scored against the run of the play in the fifth minute of added time to send Mexico out on goal difference after an enthralling second half.
 Saudi Arabia | – |  Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 39% | Possession | 61% |
| 10 | Total Shots | 26 |
| 2 | Shots on Target | 10 |
| 7 | Shots Wide | 7 |
| 1 | Shots Blocked | 9 |
| 8 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow Cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red Cards | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Offsides | 6 |
| 56% | Pass Accuracy | 76% |
| 2 | Dribbles | 7 |
| 9 | Crosses | 32 |
| 15 | Tackles | 16 |
Did We Get It Right?
Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on November 27, 2022.
El Tri in Unfamiliar Position
Mexico are on the brink of elimination as they take on Saudi Arabia in the FIFA World Cup on Wednesday. El Tri are 0-1-1 and a draw or loss will mean their first group stage elimination since 1978. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia may also need to win to advance, depending on the Argentina vs. Poland score. Both matches are being played on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST. We’ll focus on a Saudi Arabia vs Mexico match that’s basically a must-win for both teams and run through the current odds.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico
Date, time (TV):
Location: Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, Qatar
Streaming: FS1, Telemundo, Peacock
Team Standings and Odds:
| Team | FIFA World Ranking | World Cup Qualifying Record | Knockout Stage Odds | Odds to Win Group | Odds to Win World Cup |
| Saudi Arabia | 51 | 7-2-1, 1st AFC Group B | +300 | +2000 | +35000 |
| Mexico | 13 | 8-4-2, 2nd CONCACAF | +250 | N/A | +75000 |
| All Meetings: | Teams |
|---|---|
| Jul 1999: | Mexico 5-1 Saudi Arabia |
| Jun 1998: | Saudi Arabia 0-0 Mexico |
| Dec 1997: | Saudi Arabia 0-5 Mexico |
| Oct 1995: | Mexico 2-1 Saudi Arabia |
| Jan 1995: | Saudi Arabia 0-2 Mexico |
All of Mexico and Saudi Arabia’s meetings were in the 1990s. Mexico are unbeaten in five matches vs. Saudi Arabia with a record of four wins and a draw. This is the first Saudi Arabia vs Mexico match at a FIFA World Cup.
Saudi Arabia: Still Have Everything to Play For
Standings: 1-1, 3rd
Previous Match: L, 0-2 vs. Poland
It’s hard to fault Saudi Arabia’s performance in the tournament so far. Coach Herve Renard has a reputation of overachieving with national teams and his Saudi Arabia pulled off one of the greatest upsets in tournament history in their first match. The second-lowest ranked team in the tournament defeated Lionel Messi’s Argentina 2-1. As +375 underdogs vs. Poland, Saudi Arabia created a lot of chances.
Despite that, the Green Falcons conceded first. Then, they earned a penalty minutes later after a VAR review. Poland’s Wojciech Szczesny made a fantastic double save to deny Saudi Arabia but they kept knocking on the door. Despite keeping 64 percent of possession and outshooting Poland 16-9, Saudi Arabia fell 2-0. Robert Lewandowski got his first ever World Cup goal in the process.
Now, Saudi Arabia need all hands on deck. Many of them come from the club Al Hilal, the AFC Champions League champions and FIFA Club World Cup 2022 participants. So, there are certainly players on the roster who have been in high pressure situations before. Renard won’t be able to call on defender Yasir Al-Shahrani or Salman Al-Faraj due to injuries.
Mexico: Need Goals Early and Often
Standings: 0-1-1, 4th
Previous Match: L, 0-2 vs. Argentina
Mexico coach Tata Martino made it clear that he wants his team to score at least three goals vs. Saudi Arabia. With Mexico at a -2 goal differential and Poland, who are 1-1-0, at +2 it may be necessary. Given the fact that Mexico have failed to find the back of the net so far, that could certainly be a challenge. El Tri drew with Poland 0-0 in their opener as made a heroic penalty save. Martino set up more defensively vs. Argentina and managed to frustrate them for over an hour.
Then, the legendary Lionel Messi beat Ochoa and gave Argentina a 1-0 lead. Mexico still weren’t able to create much and Enzo Fernandez added a second for Argentina. El Tri are on pace to miss out on the knockout stage for the first time in their last nine World Cup appearances. Now, a little bit of magic is needed to get the job done. Alexis Vega and Hirving Lozano looked like Mexico’s biggest threats on Wednesday and expect them to play a role vs. Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, Mexico looked like they ran out of ideas at certain points vs. Argentina. Expect Martino to shift to a more attacking formation, which could mean personnel changes.
Andres Guardado joined the long list of FIFA injuries when he came off in the first half vs. Argentina. The veteran midfielder has a muscle injury but may be ready in time for Wednesday’s match. Mexico are likely playing for Martino’s job on Wednesday. He already described himself as “public enemy number one” in Mexico heading into the tournament. An early exit would spell disaster for a nation with high expectations Mexico odds to win group.
Match Analysis and Odds:
A quick look at the Saudi Arabia vs Mexico odds shows that Mexico are favored by a goal in Wednesday’s match. El Tri have already been shut out eight times this year and have won just one of their last five matches. This is when it counts the most, though, and Mexico show -110 odds to cover. Barring a Poland blowout loss to Argentina.
El Tri need to cover to advance. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia sit at -130 odds to cover the goal line and keep things close.
Mexico are also priced at -165 odds to get their first win of the tournament here. It’d be a fifth win in six matches vs. Saudi Arabia all-time and the timeliest of them all. It’ll be interesting to see if Raul Jimenez plays a bigger role here for Mexico. The Wolves striker is working his way back into shape but could add a goal scoring punch. Saudi Arabia come in at +425 odds to win and advance and a draw shows a +320 price.
Interestingly, a draw could be enough for Saudi Arabia to advance but it’d take a big Poland loss to Argentina. So, both teams need to score and over 2½ goals sits at -140 odds. The under is priced at +120 and a low scoring affair likely means neither team goes through. Mexico and Saudi Arabia are +250 and +300 underdogs, respectively, to qualify for the knockout stage regardless.
