La Liga Matchday 28 Odds, Preview: Title Race Intensifies
Barcelona Cruising
Villarreal Put Unbeaten Run on Line at Real Madrid
While Real Madrid is on the bubble of the title race, with a 12-point deficit to Barcelona, they did manage to get a huge 6-0 win over Valladolid last Sunday. Los Blancos will look to build on their momentum as they host top-four challengers Villarreal on Saturday. La Liga leaders Barcelona also blew out Elche on Matchday 27 and host a dangerous Girona side on Sunday. We’ll also take a look at Real Betis’ top-four fight and the relegation picture as we preview the La Liga Matchday 28 odds.
Games of the Week:
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
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Karim Benzema scored a first-half hat trick as Real Madrid smashed Valladolid 6-0 on Sunday. The result was a bounce-back victory after losing to Barcelona just before the March international break. Real still have a lot to play for this season and they contest the second leg of the Copa del Rey Semifinal on Wednesday before a match against Villarreal on Saturday. With a Champions League match vs Chelsea coming next Wednesday, it’ll be interesting to see if Carlo Ancelotti rotates his squad. However, with just 11 La Liga games remaining, Los Blancos need to begin to close the gap on Barcelona.
In order for that to happen, Real need to be as close to perfect as possible from here on out. They’re facing a tricky opponent on Saturday, too, as Villarreal have gone five games unbeaten in La Liga. The visitors defeated Real Sociedad 2-0 last Sunday, which was a massive result for their top-four hopes.
Sixth-placed Villarreal is now just four points behind fourth-placed Sociedad. Even though Villarreal have remained competitive with Los Blancos over the last few seasons, Real Madrid is -190 moneyline favorites for this match. After flashing their potential vs Valladolid, Real are also -120 favorites to cover the one-goal spread. Meanwhile, Villarreal +1 comes in at even odds and the visitors also show +500 moneyline odds.
Earlier this season, Villarreal handed Real Madrid one of their four La Liga losses. Last year, under Unai Emery, Villarreal also managed a 0-0 draw at the Santiago Bernabeu. Consecutive draws in this fixture, in Madrid at least, sit at +350 odds. The punters should note that Villarreal’s forward line is a bit thin for this match, though. Nicolas Jackson is suspended and Gerard Moreno is out until at least late April. Ancelotti has all of his players healthy except for Ferland Mendy. That said, under three goals display -130 odds for Saturday’s match.
Other Important Matches:
Real Betis vs Cadiz
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It may not look like it at first glance, but Real Betis vs Cadiz is a crucial matchup. Fifth-placed Betis are just three points out of a Champions League berth. Meanwhile, Cadiz is just one point outside of the relegation zone. Whichever team picks up all three points on Sunday will be one massive step closer to their goals. Both teams also lost on Matchday 27, which should certainly provide some added motivation. Currently, the La Liga Matchday 28 odds price Real Betis as -150 ATS and moneyline favorites.
Betis have been quite hard to score on over the last few weeks. Although they lost 1-0 to Atletico Madrid on Sunday, they’ve conceded 0.8 goals per game over their last five. A 2-0 home loss to Sevilla also ended 15th-placed Cadiz’s four-match unbeaten run.
Cadiz +0.5 sits at +130 odds for the match and the visitors also display +425 odds to get their first league win over Betis since 1989. Although Cadiz are currently outside of the relegation zone, only two teams have scored fewer goals than them this season.
In fact, no Cadiz player has scored more than three goals this season. Betis’ Borja Iglesias has scored 12 times this season and Cadiz only have found the net 21 times as a team. Under 2.5 goals enter the match at -130 odds as a result. Even though Cadiz struggles to score, they’ve managed to pick up points in more than half of their matches this season. That includes a scoreless draw vs Real Betis last October. Another draw is priced at +275 odds and Cadiz would certainly be more pleased than Betis with that outcome.
Almeria vs Valencia
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This match could have a big impact on the La Liga standings. Currently, both Almeria and Valencia are on 27 points. Almeria is in 19th place, on goal difference, while Valencia sits in 17th. So, an Almeria win would most likely mean they exit the relegation zone, while Valencia drops into it. These kinds of late-season matches between bottom half teams make or break. When Almeria and Valencia last met, proceedings finished in a 2-2 draw.
This match is also expected to be quite competitive as it’s one of only two weekend matches listed as a pick’em. Hosts Almeria have drawn their last two matches and come into Sunday at +130 odds to cover. Meanwhile, Valencia pk sits at -130 odds and the visitors also show +145 odds to win the match. Almeria, who have one of the better home records in the league, at 7-2-5, are +195 moneyline underdogs. Another draw displays +225 odds as well.
Expectations heading into the 2022-23 season weren’t necessarily high for newly-promoted Almeria. Meanwhile, Valencia, who are usually fighting for a Champions League place, are fighting a new kind of battle. Los Murciélagos narrowly escaped defeat on Monday vs Rayo Vallecano as a late Justin Kluivert penalty equalized. Valencia is a horrific 1-3-9 on the road this season but Almeria defender Sergio Akieme could miss this match. The odds price over two goals at -140 odds for Sunday’s crucial contest.
Barcelona vs Girona
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With a 12-point lead at the top of the table, Barcelona have a bit of leeway going forward. However, they showed absolutely no mercy to Elche on Matchday 27. Robert Lewandowski scored twice as Barça dominated and picked up a 4-0 win. Next up for Xavi’s side is Girona, who have been one of the highest scoring, and conceding, teams in the league this season. In fact, five of Girona’s last six games have finished with three or more goals. The La Liga Matchday 28 odds price both over and under three goals at -110 odds here.
First, Barcelona takes on Real Madrid in the second leg of the Copa del Rey semifinal, needing just a draw to advance. It’s likely that Xavi names quite a strong lineup for another edition of El Clasico as Barcelona chase another trophy. Even if Barcelona’s strongest XI plays midweek, they’ll have a solid four days of rest before the match vs Girona.
Barcelona managed a 1-0 road win over Girona in January and are 1.5-goal favorites for the reverse fixture. Barça shows -120 odds to cover the spread and they’re also -340 moneyline favorites. These teams haven’t met at Camp Nou since 2018 but Girona actually managed a 2-2 draw on the day. Another draw comes in at +485 odds here. Meanwhile, Girona +1.5 sits at even odds and the visitors also show +850 moneyline odds.
No team’s road matches have averaged more goals than Girona’s this season, as they’ve scored and conceded a combined 40 goals in 13 such matches. Barcelona needs to be careful with Girona’s attack, as they’ve averaged over 1.5 goals per game this season. Cristhian Stuani and Valentin Castellanos have seven and six goals for Girona this season, respectively. Meanwhile, everyone knows about the danger Lewandowski poses to opposing defenses, and the Barcelona man is the La Liga leader, with 17 goals.
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