2023 Home Run Leaders In MLB: It’s Shohei’s World

In case you were wondering, no, there isn’t anything Shohei Ohtani can’t do on a baseball field. The Los Angeles Angels’ superstar ace pitcher/slugger — thanks to a ridiculous month of June — is now the betting favorite to finish the 2023 season at the top of the 2023 Home Run Leaders in MLB. Oh, and he has a 3.02 ERA in 16 starts with a MLB-leading 5.7 hits allowed per nine innings and AL-leading 12 strikeouts per nine innings.

As of June 30th, Ohtani has hit 29 dingers — the most in baseball. He’s also leading MLB in triples, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases. He’s three homers ahead of the Atlanta Braves’ Matt Olson, five ahead of the New York Mets’ Pete Alonso, and six ahead of the Chicago White Sox’s Luis Robert.

So, it’s clear that the HR crown is Ohtani’s to lose but it’s going to be difficult for him to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially as he pitches every sixth or seventh day while trying to drag the Angels into the postseason for the first time in his career.

So, should you bet on Ohtani to take home the longball title or is someone from the field a better value? Let’s break it down.

⚾ Shohei Ohtani (+175)

As mentioned above, Ohtani is currently headlining the 2023 Home Run Leaders in MLB and has a little bit of a cushion. Granted, he likely won’t keep hitting 14 home runs per month like he did in the first 29 days of June but it’s not like he’s lucking into dingers; remember his incredible opposite-field shots in Arlington against the Texas Rangers? The question with Ohtani is if he’ll tire out in the second half of the season due to his incredible workload at the plate and on the mound.

As to that question, it’s anybody’s guess. +175 is solid value for a guy who is looking like the most feared hitter in baseball right now but he’s far from a lock.

⚾ Pete Alonso and Matt Olson (both +350)

When you look at the MLB scores on a nightly basis, one of these two guys’ teams seems to always lose and the other always seems to win. Even with his Mets mired in a two-month slog that has crushed their playoff chances — and despite a wrist injury sending him to the IL — Pete Alonso is third in the Majors in home runs.

Pete’s power numbers are right in line with his outputs from the 2021 and 2022 campaigns so he seems to be headed to another 40+ home run year.

His NL East foe, Matt Olson, has been the second-most consistent hitter in a Braves‘ lineup that puts up crooked numbers every single night. He’s leading the NL in home runs and RBIs and gets to benefit from having the protection of an All-Star lineup surrounding him.

Atlanta looks to cruise to yet another division title which could mean that Olson gets more rest down the stretch of the season but that shouldn’t hinder his race for the home run lead too much.

Either Alonso or Olson are smart picks at +350 but Pete’s track record — Olson has never hit 40 home runs in a season — gives him a slight edge even if his team is much worse.

⚾ Kyle Schwarber (+1200)

Schwarber is a little behind the current MLB home run leaders with 21 dingers yet his Philadelphia Phillies are heating up, in part due to Schwarber somewhat stabilizing his performance after a really bad start to the season. Despite leading the NL in strikeouts and posting just a .186 batting average, the lefty slugger is well within striking distance of the top group.

He gets to benefit from the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park as well as his leadoff spot in the Philadelphia lineup, which guarantees that he gets as many plate appearances as possible. Schwarber’s issue is his streakiness, exacerbated by his crazy-high strikeout totals and general inability to get the ball in play (unless it’s going over the fence). That limits his upside, particularly when going up against other power hitters with more all-around approaches.

⚾ Jorge Soler and Luis Robert (+2500)

Down at +2500 in the races to be one of the 2023 Home Run Leaders in MLB are two interesting Cuban players who weren’t necessarily expected to be in the mix this season. Soler has been the main run-producer on the upstart Miami Marlins, bouncing back from a really disappointing debut season in South Florida.

He’s in a bit of a power outage, though, as he hasn’t gone deep since June 19th. An eight-homer deficit might be too much for Soler to makeup on Ohtani but there are worse fliers than him at +2500.

Soler’s countryman Luis Robert has quietly put together an All-Star worthy season for the disappointing White Sox, hitting 23 home runs with a 140 OPS+. The big question for Robert was always health because he looked great in flashes but could never seem to stay on the field long enough to really perform.

After never playing more than 98 games in any of his first three MLB seasons, he has played in 80 of Chicago’s 81 games thus far and the statistical results are benefiting as a result.

Now, will playing more baseball than he ever has in the Majors slow down his power as the dog days of summer approach? Sure. However, if this is what a healthy Robert can do, then he could be a very intriguing dark horse candidate to shake up the home run race.

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