Spencer Strider Stats: Braves’ Ace Has Dominated

Just about everything has gone right for the Atlanta Braves in the 2023 season. As of Friday afternoon, they are 91-48 — the best record in baseball by three games over the Baltimore Orioles — and should comfortably outpace the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the National League come playoff time.

Of course, the Braves’ incredibly explosive offense is the engine for Atlanta’s success but the performances of the top of Brian Snitker’s team’s starting rotation shouldn’t be overlooked either. Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder have all been very good but Spencer Strider’s stats are something else to behold.

In just 162 innings, Strider has struck out an incredible 250 batters which leads the Majors and equates to 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings. One season after he became the fastest pitcher in MLB history to post 200 strikeouts in a season (130 innings), Strider became the fastest pitcher in MLB history to post 100 strikeouts in a season (61 innings). Oh, and in 2023, he broke his own record by striking out his first 200 batters in 123.1 innings pitched.

To be fair, Strider’s ERA is a little inflated (3.83) because of some rough recent starts but he’s still having a stellar season and is firmly in the NL Cy Young mix. The baseball predictions don’t love his chances against the likes of Blake Snell and Justin Steele but, if Strider can regain his form in his final three or so starts of the season, then he can definitely push Snell and Steele to have a chance to add yet another huge accomplishment to his short but promising career.

As MLB’s stats leader in essentially every strikeout-related category, Strider has the pure numbers to compete for the ultimate starting pitcher award but he’s just +450 right now. His biggest issue has been the home run ball as he has allowed 20 dingers so far, equivalent to a little more than one per nine innings. He doesn’t walk many batters nor give up a ton of hits so his WHIP (1.093) and FIP (2.89) are elite even with the longball problem. Strider actually leads the NL in FIP.

With the Braves looking like they’ll stay atop the MLB divisional standings for the rest of the season, it’s also possible that Strider might be rested for a few starts down the stretch which certainly won’t help his cause. Atlanta won’t want to get Strider totally out of rhythm before the postseason starts but, considering that he is currently a career-high in innings pitched since at least college, it’s worth keeping in mind that he could be a pitch/inning count going forward.

So, maybe it’s not so likely that Spencer Strider’s stats will be good enough to match those of Snell (who is -190 to win the NL Cy) or Steele (+200). Snell has Strider beat on run prevention and hits allowed but his peripheral numbers — mainly how he has walked the most batters in the Majors — are pretty uninspiring. It remains to be seen how much, if at all, Cy Young voters will consider those when making their selections.

Steele is right up there in both run prevention and peripheral numbers, particularly ERA+ (he leads the Majors) and home runs allowed per nine innings (he leads the NL). However, he doesn’t have the strikeouts that Strider and Snell have so he isn’t necessarily the “sexiest” Cy Young pick. He also came out of relative obscurity to put together a stellar 2023 campaign after an under-the-radar solid second season.

Strider has the flash and team success but, for better or worse, ERA still matters a lot to many voters and, often, the Cy Young goes to the pitcher with the lowest ERA and a sufficient number of innings pitched. That’s where Spencer Strider’s stats fall short and that’s why he might not end up winning despite probably having the best overall season among NL starters.

Still, at +450, it’s not a bad idea to take a flier on Strider because of how good the value is. Also, a few bad starts from Snell and Steele could give Strider the boost he needs even if the Braves limit his usage throughout September.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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