Houston vs Texas Tech Preview: Red Raiders Double-Digit Favorite

The Houston Cougars visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders for a Big 12 Conference clash. Both NCAAF teams dropped their conference openers and need a victory to help their bowl chances. Houston is 2-2 overall, but the Sagarin college football rankings have the Cougars ranked last in the Big 12. The Red Raiders are 1-3 overall, but ranked No. 5 in the Big 12. The Houston vs Texas Tech preview shows the Cougars are favored by 10 points and the total on the game is 55.5. Texas Tech is a hefty -370 on the moneyline.

Cougars Taking Advantage of Opposition’s Miscues

The Houston Cougars are 2-2 straight-up and against the spread this NCAAF season. The Cougars are also 2-2 in totals. Houston is being outgained slightly on the year, but are +6 in turnovers. That will make up for allowing some yards. Houston hasn’t run the football particularly well, but it’s moving the ball through the air.

Former Texas Tech quarterback Donavon Smith has thrown for 1,012 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions. He’s also added three touchdowns on the ground. He’s bound to have some butterflies facing the team he transferred from.

Smith has been sacked 12 times, but has decent mobility and can make things happen with his feet. He’s done a good job spreading the ball around, with Houston’s top three receivers each having between 20 and 24 receptions.

On defense, Houston has been average against the run, allowing 144.8 yards and 4.1 yards per rush. The pass defense hasn’t been as good, allowing 262.5 yards per game.

Red Raiders Struggle as Favorites

It’s a bit of a surprise to see Texas Tech 1-3 straight up at this point of the season. Especially since the college football betting odds have had the Red Raiders favored in three of their first four games. Texas Tech won the battle of the stats against Wyoming and West Virginia.

But the NCAAF scoreboard had the Red Raiders on the losing end in both those games. Texas Tech also played Oregon tough before losing 38-30. The Red Raiders are 1-3 in totals on the NCAAF scores and odds this season.

Quarterback Tyler Shough suffered a broken fibula against West Virginia and will be replaced by Behren Morton. Morton has talent and played well last season when filling in for the oft-injured Shough. But he struggled a bit against West Virginia. A full week of reps with the first team in practice should do him some good.

The Red Raiders can take some pressure off the quarterback with a decent running game. Tahj Brooks has rushed for 412 yards and the Red Raiders are averaging 162 yards per game. The Houston vs Texas Tech preview expects Brooks to see the ball plenty Saturday.

What to Expect

The Cougars throw a little more than they pass and Smith knows the defense well. The problems is Texas Tech also knows Smith pretty well. But Houston is unlikely to change things up because Smith is facing his old team. The Cougars will still try to mix the run and the pass.

On defense, the Cougars could crowd the line of scrimmage a bit more than usual. Morton will be a good quarterback, but right now he’s a redshirt sophomore who struggled in his only significant playing time this season. Houston is likely to try and force him to make some plays.

The Houston vs Texas Tech preview notes the Red Raiders have a lot of belief in Morton and aren’t afraid to turn him loose. But Texas Texas is likely to run a few more times than they typically would.

Texas Tech is allowing just 201 passing yards per game and holding teams to 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The run defense is a little bit better than the stats indicate, as Texas Tech’s foes are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on the season.

Who to Bet On?

The key to this game from a betting standpoint is trying to determine how many points Shough is worth. He’s had his ups-and-downs this season, but does a decent job leading the team. Playing at home will help Morton and the Red Raiders. It’s always tougher for a young quarterback to play in a hostile environment. But the Texas Tech fans will be behind him here.

The total is a tough call in this game. You have Smith playing his old team and a backup quarterback on the other side. The value is on Texas Tech here, even with Morton getting the start. The power rating have Texas Tech favored by 17 points and Shough isn’t worth that type of adjustment, so give the Red Raiders a good look here.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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