New Mexico State Aggies 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props

2023 New Mexico State stats shows them finishing the season 6-5 ATS (+51 units). It was the second straight season NMSU produced a profit for bettors (6-5 ATS, +58 units in 2021). Since 2016, the Aggies are 34-37 ATS (-517 units). Head Coach Jerry Kill is heading into his 2nd season at the helm, after a 7-6 S/U record as an Independent, the school’s last before joining Conference USA for the 2023 season.

The Aggies had a small push from the NCAA after it granted a waiver to New Mexico State after their game against San Jose State was canceled. They required the waiver because two of their six regular season wins were against FCS schools. The NCAA requires six division one wins to be bowl eligible. Unlike last season when many predicted the Aggies to be among the worst in College Football, 2023 will be filled with tempered expectations.

New Mexico State Aggies At A Glance

Aggies Focused On Back to Back Bowl Wins

New Mexico State’s 24-19 Quick Lane Bowl victory over Bowling Green last December was the culmination of an Aggie team that got it together quickly after losing their first four games and four of five. Kill’s team wasn’t just losing games, they were getting crushed. Through four weeks, New Mexico State was outscored by a combined 147-32. The turnaround came in week seven against in-state rival New Mexico as a 7-point dog. It was the first time the Aggies had played well for 60 minutes in quite some time after disposing of the Lobos, 21-9.

New Mexico State ended the season winning six of their last seven games, even if it wasn’t against the greatest schedule. Wins against Lamar, UMass, Liberty, or Valparaiso won’t turn any heads, but their bowl victory, as a 3.5 point dog against Bowling Green, sent a message that the program has turned the corner.

Last year, the 129-year program’s win total projection was just 2.5. Over bettors weren’t rewarded with a winner dispute their seven wins because their game against San Jose State was canceled, which voided the ticket. This year, oddsmakers have given the Aggies a bigger hurdle to climb, setting their projected win total at 5 ½ (over -120). Kill has said that the Aggies are better on defense even though they lost eight starters. He believes the quality of athletes is better than in 2022, while clearly relying on an experienced offense to keep them off the field. If the 2023 New Mexico State stats show an improvement in moving the ball through the year, Kill may be building a perennial bowl participant.

National Championship Odds: Improved, But You Can’t Be Serious!

There’s no way the New Mexico State Aggies will compete for a national championship so we’ll just filter in some betting numbers instead of straining our brains to figure out how they could cash a +100,000 future ticket, let’s give you some 2023 New Mexico State Aggies betting stats from 2023.

The Aggies were a favorite three times in 2023, finishing 2-1 ATS. As a dog, Kill’s team went 4-4 (-33 units). That’s a massive improvement who went into 2022 with a 9-20 ATS mark when getting points. Since 2018, the Aggies are 9-15 ATS as a road underdog. Dating back to 2015 when Jerry Kill was the head coach at Minnesota, Kill is 9-13 ATS. Overall, Kill is 59-51 ATS (+461 units). Against teams .500 or better, the 23-year head coach is 27-31 (-537 units).

Conference Odds: New Kids On The Block

The Aggies begin their first season as a member of Conference USA. oddsmakers have made New Mexico State the sixth choice to win the conference at +3300. Only Florida International (+6000) has longer odds. We wouldn’t suggest that the Aggies are ready to win the conference, so let’s look at what 2023 New Mexico State ATS stats may look like against their conference opponents.

The conference favorite is Western Kentucky (+145). The Aggies have never faced the Hilltoppers. Behind WKU is Liberty (+250), and NMS is 2-3 ATS against the Flames. Middle Tennessee State is third (+400) with no past meetings against the Aggies. La Tech is +700. The Aggies have met the Bulldogs eight times, splitting ATS results. Rounding out the conference is UTEP (+1200) and FIU (+6000). New Mexico State has faced the Miners more than any other in CUSA, finishing 8-9 ATS. The Aggies failed to cover their only meeting against FIU.

Regular Season Wins: Belief in Kill, Aggies

The Aggies projected win total of 5.5 is massive for a program that was considered at the bottom of the barrel for years. In 2021, their projected win total was 1.5 to give you an idea of how far they’ve come. Now it’s hard to predict what 2023 New Mexico State Aggies stats will look like with a schedule that includes games against a new conference, but if Kill’s team continues to improve, bettors will cash an over ticket with a schedule that looks like they can get to the six-win mark. There are five potential D1 wins right off the bat against UMass, Liberty, New Mexico, Hawaii, and FIU. They will then have to find two wins against UTEP, La Tech, MTSU, Western Kentucky, or Auburn.

Historical NCAAF point spread numbers show that NMS has covered six times in their last meeting against their eight D1 opponents on the 2023 schedule. Their three games against FCS schools make their season-long handicap difficult, but we believe in what Jerry Kill has built enough of a program to wager over 5 ½ wins as it’s certain the Aggies will improve on their NCAA Football team stats from a year ago. When the season ends, we may look back on this wager as one of the best College Football bets we’ve made prior to the start of the season.

For 2023 New Mexico State stats, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Louisiana Tech 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props
• California Golden Bears 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props
• What’s Next For South Carolina and Quarterback Spencer Rattler Heading into the 2023 Season
• James Madison 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props
• FAU 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props