2023 NFL Coach of The Year Odds: A Folk Hero, A Legend, and Who?
Wide Open Odds Have Two Notable Names at the Top
Campbell and Payton Lead 2023 COTY Odds
Dan Campbell (+800) and Sean Payton (+900) are the frontrunners to be named the best regular season head coach for the 2023 NFL season. The 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds favor both for different reasons. Campbell, liked by everyone, led the Lions to a winning record last year. With Green Bay’s downfall, Detroit could win the division (+125). Meanwhile, Payton could fix the Broncos and win his second award.
Media Tends to Favor First-Year Head Coaches
Four of the last six Coach of the Year winners were in their first years with their team. Brian Daboll won with the Giants last season. Kevin Stefanski won with Cleveland in 2020. If this trend continues, Payton could win in his first year with Denver.
The Broncos were abysmal last season and the Russell Wilson trade proved to be a major dud. Seattle returned to the postseason with Geno Smith while Denver won just four games with Wilson as the starter. The nine-time Pro Bowler posted his worst stats while absorbing 55 sacks from a frustrated offensive line.
The Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett and traded three picks (including a first-round pick in 2023) to acquire Payton from New Orleans. Payton comes with a resume that includes a Super Bowl ring and the 2006 Coach of the Year award. He’s behind just Campbell in the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds assuming he can turn Denver around. They’re still not expected to make the playoffs at -250, however.
Frank Reich (+1800) is the most notable as he coaches this year’s top draft pick, Bryce Young, in Carolina. Carolina finished 7-10 last season and are widely expected to win more than that this year (over 7.5 wins at -140).
But it may take more than eight wins to get Reich the award. Carolina will need to improve dramatically and win the division (+350). That’s not impossible as the Panthers have one of the easiest NFL regular season schedules.
Shane Steichen (+2200) then takes over Reich’s old position in Indianapolis. Like his predecessor, Steichen gets to coach a top quarterback prospect in Anthony Richardson. As the fourth overall pick, the Colts expect Richardson to show some promise. The NFL lines don’t expect the Colts to make the playoffs (-500) and are a distant third-place to win the division (+550).
If Steichen can turn the team around like Doug Pederson did for Jacksonville last season, the award could be his.
Who Coaches The Most-Improved Team?
Payton, Reich, or Steichen could improve their teams by a lot this season. But they may have a tougher time than coaches who have already spent a season or two with their current NFL teams. That’s where Campbell is.
Campbell enters his third season with Detroit. The team improved dramatically in 2022 going from three wins to nine. Had Detroit made the playoffs, Campbell could have won the award. Now, Detroit is not only expected to win over 9.5 games (-125) and make the playoffs (-170), but to win the division.
That’s a lot of expectations for Campbell so if Detroit treads water, he’s unlikely to win. So his 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds may be too short given what he has to work with.
Other contenders like Chicago’s Matt Eberflus (+1200) and Atlanta’s Arthur Smith (+1600) could be better bets.
Eberflus is in his sophomore season with Chicago. The team made dramatic improvements during the offseason. Quarterback Justin Fields could have a breakout season and even flirt with MVP contention. The Bears are +150 to make the playoffs but are being bet to win more than 7.5 games (-135) this year.
Smith is entering year three with the Falcons. He is in the hot seat if the team does not show significant improvements. Desmond Ridder will enter his second season at QB and the team now has two bonafide running backs. Atlanta could be the most improved team. Odds give Atlanta a fair chance of posting a winning record (+115) and making the playoffs (+120).
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