NFL Draft Order Odds: Quarterback Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud Leading the Charge

Will The Chicago Bears Use The  No. 1 Overall Pick to Make A Deal?

The last piece of the puzzle in the 2023 NFL Draft fell into place when the Kansas City Chiefs topped the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday’s Super Bowl. Philadelphia will pick 30th and Kansas City 31st in the draft. It is the perfect time to look at the NFL draft order odds.

There are just 31 picks with the Miami Dolphins losing their first-round pick. The Miami Dolphins were found to be in violation of the NFL’s anti-tampering rules in their attempts to land quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton.

The Dolphins do have a first-round selection as a result of a previous trade with the San Francisco 49ers.

Five first-round picks have already changed hands and that includes four of the top 12.

The No. 5 pick goes from Denver to Seattle as part of the trade for quarterback Russell Wilson. The deal that sent Matthew Stafford from Detroit to the Los Angeles Rams will result in the sixth-overall pick going to Detroit.

Super Bowl finalist Philadelphia’s trade with New Orleans will result in the Eagles picking 10th with the Deshaun Watson deal, meaning that the Houston Texans will pick second and 12th.

Next up in the draft process is the NFL scouting combine that runs from February 28th-March 6th in Indianapolis. More than 300 players have been invited to work out in front of coaches and scouts from all 32 NFL teams.

Rising to the Top

While Bryce Young didn’t join former Ohio State running back Archie Griffin as the only two-time winner of the Heisman Trophy, another prize could be waiting for the former Alabama quarterback.

According to the NFL draft order odds, he is currently priced at -120 in the odds to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. That number is interesting since Chicago not only used a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft to draft quarterback Justin Fields out of Ohio State, but the Chicago Bears also traded away a first-round selection in the most recent draft so they could move up and acquire Fields.

Fields became just the third quarterback in NFL history to run for more than 1,000 yards so there is the possibility that Chicago trades out of the top pick.

Getting Passing Grades

Three of the four players with the best odds to be the top pick are quarterbacks. What a difference a year makes as former Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback selected in the 2022 draft.

After Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud comes in at +250 with Kentucky’s Will Levis at +500 when looking at the NFL draft betting odds.

Young finished ninth among Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks in passer rating during the 2022 season despite losing a pair of 1,000-yard receivers to the NFL.

Stroud had the top passer rating and finished second only to Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams of Southern California with 41 touchdown passes. Levis had a rather mediocre season with 2,406 passing yards with 19 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

Defense, Defense, Defense

It is not only about the quarterbacks:

There are some draft gurus who consider Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter to be the best player in the draft. He has the third-best odds to be the top pick at +450 according to the NFL draft order odds and that has as much to do with his position as his talent level.

Alabama’s pass-rushing linebacker Will Anderson comes in at +650 and he shouldn’t need to wait long to hear his name called.

It should be noted that the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs met in the Super Bowl after leading the NFL in sacks during the regular season so a team looking to dial up the pressure would be wise to look at Anderson.

The NFL team stats list Chicago 29th and Houston 30th in yards allowed per game during the regular season and that could play a role in how the top of the draft shakes out.

Catching On

Receivers were flying off the board in the top half of the 2022 NFL Draft with Drake London (Atlanta Falcons), NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson (New York Jets), Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints), Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions) and Jahan Dotson (Washington Commanders) going from picks No. 8-16.

It might take a little longer for the first receiver to be picked this year. TCU’s Quentin Johnson leads the way at +125 to be the first receiver selected followed by Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+200) and USC’s Jordan Addison (+225).

Smith-Njigba is the most intriguing player of the three just based on the fact that he was the most productive of the pass catchers during the 2021 season when first-round picks Wilson and Olave were also catching passes from Stroud. They finished as the only rookies to go over 1,000 yards during the 2022 NFL season. Teams might be spooked a little bit by Smith-Njigba’s injury-plagued 2022 season with the Buckeyes.

The Waiting Game

Being the starting quarterback on back-to-back national championship teams doesn’t guarantee an early selection in the draft. Georgia’s Stetson Bennett is listed at even money to go undrafted.

Bennett wasn’t viewed as an elite draft prospect during the season. Then came a recent arrest on a public intoxication charge. Perhaps he will be selected in the late rounds. However, the fact that he will turn 26 during the 2023 NFL season doesn’t help his cause.

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