Grieving World Rally Championship Heads to Croatia for Round 4

The World Rally Championship (WRC) drivers and teams are still reeling from Craig Breen’s loss. The Irish driver was beloved across the paddock and known by fans for his positive outlook. His death on April 13 during a test for this weekend’s event was the first WRC death in 17 years. The last driver the championship lost, German Jörg Bastuck, died during Rally Catalunya in 2006. The last death related to any WRC event was in the 2017 Monte Carlo Rall when Hayden Paddon crashed his Hyundai and a spectator died after being hit by the right rear of the car.

James Fulton, Breen’s co-driver, was uninjured. Breen’s funeral services on April 18 took place at The Sacred Heart Church in a suburb of his hometown Waterford, Ireland. Tributes from across motorsport and the WRC paddock poured in in the days following his death.

The Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) announced Breen’s car number 42 will be retired for the rest of the season. This season will be remembered as one of the darkest for the WRC.

Organizers have decided to press on with the Croatia Rally this weekend, starting on Thursday. The first tarmac event of the year means yet another new challenge for drivers this weekend. Here’s a look at who’s favored for the win this weekend:

Champions at The Top

Championship leader and eight-time WRC champion Sébastien Ogier has the best odds for victory this weekend at +140. Ogier’s 57 career event wins are second in WRC history. Of those 57, a third have come on asphalt or tarmac events like Croatia. The event itself is new to the WRC calendar. This week’s rally will be just the third WRC race in the eastern European country. Ogier won the only Croatia Rally he’s entered in 2021 by just 0.6 seconds over teammate Elfyn Evans. That was the third-smallest margin of victory in WRC history.

He has won 19 tarmac- or asphalt-only events in his career but nearly half of those are at Rallye Monte-Carlo. He’s a more consistent performer on gravel and this week may be a better opportunity for another driver to fight for victory.

Right behind Ogier is 2022 Croatia Rally winner Kalle Rovanperä at +240. Rovanperä, the defending WRC champion, won last year’s event during torrential rain on the final day of competition. But he edged out Ott Tänak by just 4.3 seconds and continued the trend of close finishes in Croatia. That win last year was his first career win on tarmac.

Both of these drivers are competing for Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT, the winning team in each of the last two Croatia Rally events.

Thierry Neuville sits behind the two champions at +325. The Belgian driver has a history of performing well in tarmac or mixed tarmac rallies with eight of his 17 event victories coming in those conditions. He’s won stages in Croatia as well: three in 2022 and six in 2021. He finished third in 2021 but just 8.1 seconds behind winner Ogier. He’s been in good form this season so far and is the only driver to finish on the podium in every event. If anyone can bring a surprise on the tarmac this weekend, it’s probably Neuville.

Longer Odds for Victory in the Croatia Rally

There’s a big gap in the odds from Neuville to Tänak at +900. Last year’s runner-up is the only driver besides Ogier to win a 2023 WRC event with his victory in Sweden. He came close last year to beating Rovanperä but couldn’t close out on the final stage. As of Tuesday night, the odds of rain are pretty low for the rally with rain hitting the area the Monday after the event. But that could change and make for another close finish. If he’s in position, Tänak will look to draw even with Ogier in wins this season.

Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT’s third driver, Elfyn Evans, sits fifth at +1100. The British driver came incredibly close to the win in 2021 but followed it up with a fifth-place finish in 2022. He has the leading car under him but it may be hard to keep up with the leaders.

Predictions for the 2023 Croatia Rally

The WRC comes to Zagreb under some of the worst circumstances in decades. Whoever wins will be overshadowed by losing Breen before a rally he’d likely perform well in. Prior winners Ogier and Rovanperä are favored for very good reason.

But we like Neuville to take the win this weekend. He’s a good driver in tarmac events, consistently finished well in events this season, and will be racing the lead Hyundai Shell Mobis WRT car with Breen’s loss. It’s a bit romantic but Neuville winning a week after the motorsport world lost Breen in a car sporting a special livery in his honor is an incredible storyline.

Beyond the winner, Ogier, Rovanperä, and Neuville are heavily favored to finish in the top three at -250, -222, and -200 each. If you’re looking for a podium surprise, Evans (+130 for a podium) could be a great option. He’s come close to winning in Croatia before and finishing ahead of one of those three is feasible. Tips for betting on Rally Croatia can be found right here, as well as the complete WRC standings.
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